Two seasons, two championships in the books. Akin to my
train commute passing cars on the 105, my picks have sped by the competition.
Having said that, there’s a giant predictive gap between what’s happened in the
past and what’s most likely to happen in the future. Specifically, the NFL is
among the kings of volatility and with the introduction of another player,
Zach, the odds have drastically changed.
For context, these championships refer to winning our annual
NFL “wins bet”—a draft-style bet between four friends, whereby each person
selects a real-life NFL team and receives their wins. The objective is to have
the most total wins at the end of the season; each person bets $50,
winner-take-all.
While I may have won the last two seasons, it wasn’t a
linear path there. For one, a fortuitous and admittedly homer-driven trade last
season—my Giants for Sean’s Chargers—ended up propelling me to a championship
last year despite my honest thinking that the Giants were actually a better bet
for more wins.
But what about this season? Following the finalization of
our draft yesterday, who projects to win it all? Will Aaron grab his third consecutive NFL win? Let’s take a look,
particularly leveraging the thinking of sportsbooks and projection systems.
VIVA LAS VEGAS
|
Pick
|
Owner
|
LV Avg
|
Sbook
|
Bovada
|
Sharp LV
|
|
1
|
Aaron
|
66.9
|
67.5
|
66.0
|
67.2
|
|
4
|
Zach
|
66.5
|
66.5
|
66.5
|
66.5
|
|
2
|
Eric
|
65.6
|
66.0
|
65.0
|
65.7
|
|
3
|
Sean
|
60.3
|
60.0
|
60.0
|
61.0
|
Vegas thinks it will be a tight race at the top, with Aaron,
Zach and Eric duking it out—while they’re not as bullish on Sean’s suite of
teams.
Maybe projection systems feel differently?
PROJECTIONS
SMA-JECTIONS
|
Pick
|
Owner
|
Proj Avg
|
538
|
TeamRk
|
ESPN
|
NF
|
|
1
|
Aaron
|
67.1
|
70.0
|
66.4
|
67.0
|
65.1
|
|
2
|
Eric
|
65.0
|
65.2
|
63.9
|
65.0
|
65.8
|
|
4
|
Zach
|
64.7
|
65.5
|
63.7
|
67.0
|
62.6
|
|
3
|
Sean
|
59.5
|
55.5
|
61.9
|
58.0
|
62.5
|
This is where Aaron really shines—538 is particularly
bullish—holding a formidable two-win lead over Eric and Zach, while Sean again
lags behind.
PUTTING IT ALL
TOGETHER
Let’s put it all together, combing the thinking of Vegas
sportsbooks with that of public projection models:
|
Pick
|
Owner
|
All Avg
|
LV Avg
|
Proj Avg
|
|
1
|
Aaron
|
67.0
|
66.9
|
67.1
|
|
4
|
Zach
|
65.6
|
66.5
|
64.7
|
|
2
|
Eric
|
65.3
|
65.6
|
65.0
|
|
3
|
Sean
|
59.9
|
60.3
|
59.5
|
With the first pick in the draft, it shouldn’t come as a
surprise that Aaron nets the highest average score across both sources, with
the consensus having him as a 1.5-win favorite over both Zach and Eric to achieve the elusive three-peat. Sean’s
set of contrarian picks will be interesting to watch all season, as his models
were at odds with Vegas and other public projection systems.
For reference, I’ve included the full data set below.
Best
of luck this season, gents.
|
Pick
|
Owner
|
Team
|
All Avg
|
LV Avg
|
Proj Avg
|
Sbook
|
Bovada
|
Sharp LV
|
538
|
TeamRk
|
ESPN
|
NF
|
|
1
|
Aaron
|
New England Patriots
|
11.1
|
11.3
|
10.9
|
11.5
|
11.0
|
11.3
|
11.2
|
11.2
|
11.0
|
10.0
|
|
2
|
Eric
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
10.2
|
10.3
|
10.2
|
10.5
|
10.0
|
10.3
|
11.0
|
9.8
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
|
3
|
Sean
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
9.4
|
10.0
|
8.9
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
8.2
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
8.8
|
|
4
|
Zach
|
Pittsburgh Steelers
|
10.1
|
10.5
|
9.8
|
10.5
|
10.5
|
10.4
|
9.9
|
9.7
|
10.0
|
9.4
|
|
5
|
Zach
|
Green Bay Packers
|
9.3
|
9.9
|
8.7
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
9.8
|
7.1
|
9.0
|
10.0
|
8.5
|
|
6
|
Sean
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
9.4
|
9.5
|
9.2
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
9.4
|
|
7
|
Eric
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
9.8
|
10.1
|
9.6
|
10.5
|
10.0
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
9.8
|
9.0
|
9.5
|
|
8
|
Aaron
|
New Orleans Saints
|
9.4
|
9.6
|
9.3
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
9.7
|
9.2
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
9.4
|
|
9
|
Aaron
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
9.1
|
9.3
|
9.0
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
9.3
|
9.9
|
9.0
|
9.0
|
8.1
|
|
10
|
Eric
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
9.0
|
9.1
|
9.0
|
9.0
|
9.0
|
9.2
|
8.8
|
8.8
|
9.0
|
9.3
|
|
11
|
Sean
|
Houston Texans
|
8.2
|
8.6
|
7.8
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.8
|
6.3
|
8.2
|
8.0
|
8.5
|
|
12
|
Zach
|
Carolina Panthers
|
8.7
|
8.8
|
8.6
|
8.5
|
9.0
|
8.8
|
8.6
|
8.4
|
9.0
|
8.4
|
|
13
|
Zach
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
9.5
|
7.9
|
9.0
|
7.7
|
|
14
|
Sean
|
Tennessee Titans
|
7.9
|
8.0
|
7.8
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
8.1
|
7.8
|
8.0
|
7.4
|
|
15
|
Eric
|
San Francisco 49ers
|
8.1
|
8.5
|
7.8
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.4
|
7.3
|
7.0
|
9.0
|
7.9
|
|
16
|
Aaron
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.4
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.8
|
8.2
|
9.0
|
7.7
|
|
17
|
Aaron
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
8.3
|
8.2
|
8.3
|
8.5
|
8.0
|
8.2
|
8.7
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
8.4
|
|
18
|
Eric
|
Oakland Raiders
|
7.8
|
8.0
|
7.6
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
8.1
|
7.3
|
7.8
|
8.0
|
7.3
|
|
19
|
Sean
|
New York Giants
|
6.8
|
7.1
|
6.4
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
7.3
|
5.8
|
7.0
|
6.0
|
6.9
|
|
20
|
Zach
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
8.0
|
7.8
|
8.2
|
7.5
|
8.0
|
7.8
|
8.9
|
7.8
|
8.0
|
8.2
|
|
21
|
Zach
|
Detroit Lions
|
7.7
|
7.6
|
7.8
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
7.7
|
8.2
|
7.1
|
8.0
|
7.7
|
|
22
|
Sean
|
New York Jets
|
6.3
|
5.9
|
6.7
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
5.8
|
6.9
|
6.2
|
6.0
|
7.7
|
|
23
|
Eric
|
Chicago Bears
|
6.8
|
6.6
|
7.0
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
6.8
|
6.6
|
6.7
|
7.0
|
7.6
|
|
24
|
Aaron
|
Denver Broncos
|
7.2
|
7.1
|
7.2
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
7.4
|
7.0
|
7.6
|
7.0
|
7.3
|
|
25
|
Aaron
|
Washington Redskins
|
7.1
|
7.0
|
7.3
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
6.9
|
7.2
|
7.1
|
7.0
|
7.7
|
|
26
|
Eric
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
7.0
|
6.6
|
7.4
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
6.7
|
7.5
|
7.6
|
7.0
|
7.3
|
|
27
|
Sean
|
Cleveland Browns
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
5.7
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
5.7
|
3.8
|
6.5
|
6.0
|
6.4
|
|
28
|
Zach
|
Miami Dolphins
|
6.6
|
6.6
|
6.6
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
6.7
|
7.0
|
6.8
|
6.0
|
6.5
|
|
29
|
Zach
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
6.8
|
6.9
|
6.6
|
7.5
|
6.5
|
6.8
|
6.3
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
6.2
|
|
30
|
Sean
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
6.3
|
5.6
|
7.0
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
5.9
|
7.4
|
7.2
|
6.0
|
7.4
|
|
31
|
Eric
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
6.5
|
6.4
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
6.3
|
6.8
|
6.4
|
6.0
|
6.9
|
|
32
|
Aaron
|
Buffalo Bills
|
6.4
|
6.0
|
6.8
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
5.9
|
8.0
|
5.8
|
7.0
|
6.5
|
I just want to pose one question: how are these drafts fun for Aaron?
ReplyDeleteLet me explain: based on the above (see the last chart) it is clear all of Aaron's picks were selected based on other sourced pre-draft "projections". On the opposite end, Sean appears to merely use subjective, non-analytical judgement (even if to his detriment); where as Aaron is the foil, as he exclusively appears to use other people's analytics to 'blindly' make his selection (all his picks had the highest remaining win projections). With that said, it seems like Zach's strategy was the ideal balance between Sean's 'self-determined-strategy' and Aaron's purely 'projection-based-philosophy'.
This also begs the question: if Aaron does win it a third straight year - is that impressive? Likewise, would it be due to his genius or that have of the machines?
Good comment there, Zachary Davis Boppas. It's certainly true I use a mostly-subjective system when picking my squads... and that was thrown into warp drive this year. Blanking on the Vikings only exacerbated it. For instance, though, I'll just never pick the 49ers -- even though they were available to me and had a higher wins over/under according to LV compared to the Titans. In short, I guess $50 isn't enough to get my juices flowing and pick strictly with my brain (although I believe I grabbed the hated Patriots in 2K17).
ReplyDeleteHehe, very interesting point by Zach. I guess I just disagree with all of the underlying assumptions Zachary has made, specifically the fact that the selection process is done completely blind (even if I recognize how optically, I could see how it could appear that way).
ReplyDeleteTo your point, however, I do love identifying key data points to collect and then integrating/analyzing, then pairing that intelligence with my own subjective knowledge/analysis. I guess you could call it what I deem to be my "competitive advantage."
So, yeah, I do enjoy it! And I do think three straight wins would be quite impressive, particularly given the reduced odds of winning this season. At that point, prior to year 1, the odds of a 3-peat would have been 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/4 = ~2.8%. Not bad, ay?