NFL Week 1, Betting the Dogs: The Giants, Sam
Darnold, and the Potentially Less-Terrible Cleveland Browns
Sean Burch
Are
you a moderate gambling addict too? It’s an exciting time, with the NFL regular
season kicking off on Thursday night. But before looking at the teams we should
blow our money on this weekend, let’s take a quick trip back to Week 1, 2017
for some guidance.
The
Browns, fresh off a dreadful 1-15 season, are heavy 8.5-point home underdogs to
the hated Pittsburgh Steelers. Leading 21-10 midway through the fourth quarter,
it looks to be another comfortable win for Ben Roethlisberger in a career full
of them against Cleveland. Browns fans, picturing another torturous season at
hand, were likely debating “would we be better off with a cardboard cutout of
Bill Belichick as head coach compared to Hue Jackson?” It’s a valid question.
But that’s put on hold, as rookie quarterback DeShon Kizer gets the ball back
and drives the Browns downfield. With 3:36 left to play, he connects with Corey
Coleman on a slant for a touchdown. Cleveland successfully converts its
two-point attempt right after. The Steelers’ lead is shaved to 21-18, and
they’ll need to move the chains a few times or risk handing the ball back for a
potential late game implosion. The Dawg Pound is suddenly barking.
You
remember how this turned out right? The Browns forced the Steelers to punt,
Kizer scrambled towards the end zone as time expired, and Jackson, eyes welling
up, was lifted onto his players’ shoulders and carried out of the stadium,
signaling a changing of the guard in the AFC North. Eh, not exactly. The
Steelers got the ball back, and after first downs from Antonio Brown and
Le’Veon Bell, held on for an ugly road victory. But this game was a sign the
Browns had finally turned the corner, right? (Ron Howard Narrator Voice: It
wasn’t.) In fact, the Browns somehow sucked even more, going winless in
2017. Jackson, in a sadder version of Apollonia purifying herself in the waters of Lake
Minnetonka in “Purple Rain,” later took a dip in Lake Erie to wash away the pain.
What
this game reinforced, though, was the old betting axiom: bet on the home underdogs
– especially early in the season. In the last five years, home dogs are 16-11
against the spread during Week 1. And it’s not just the home teams, either.
Road dogs are 43-33-2 since 2013. Combined, that’s a 57 percent winning
percentage. Maybe that doesn’t sound too sexy, but if you hit on 57 percent of
your bets in Vegas, you’d own a quarter of The Strip soon enough.
That makes the Browns, hosting the Steelers
once again as four point dogs to start the season, an intriguing play – even
after last season’s shit show. Factor in new additions like Tyrod Taylor and
Jarvis Landry – and Bell potentially missing the game for Pittsburgh – and I’m
a bit startled how excited I am to bet on Cleveland.
Of course, if betting the dogs is a wise move
early in the season, then betting on the favorites wouldn’t be. And betting on
heavy favorites – teams favored by six points or more – is dumber than Jordan
Peterson trying to explain his thoughts on God.
Big-time favorites cover less than 30 percent of the time, going 4-10-1 ATS in
the last five years. That’s uh, not good.
Does that mean I’ll be taking the Jets (+6.5), led
by Sam Darnold, the youngest quarterback to start a season since the AFL-NFL
merger, in Detroit? Hell yes it does. Same goes for the 49ers (+6.5) in
Minnesota, even after losing their starting running back to a torn ACL. Niners
quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo should be supported, not slandered, for grabbing dinner with Kiara
Mia, as far as I’m concerned. And the Texans (+6.5)
against a shorthanded Patriots squad, is also a go for me, even if Tom Brady will
be running on avocado ice cream
at 60.
This isn’t as radical as it sounds. The NFL
routinely has major turnover. On average, five new teams make the playoffs each
season over the last five years. Did anyone expect the flaccid Rams to become
the high-scoring machine they were last season? Just because a team was good
last season doesn’t mean they’ll be good this season – and that creates a
gambling opportunity early in the year.
But don’t get too fancy here. Betting on the dogs
to win outright gives a juicier payout, but it also happens much less
frequently – about 35 percent of the time, to be exact. They’re dogs for a
reason, after all. So unless you’re feeling lucky, avoid the moneyline bets,
and stick to the spread. The spread is your friend.
Say it with me: I will bet on the dogs this
weekend. It doesn’t matter that Eli Manning looks like a pig roasting over an
open flame, waiting to be devoured by the Jacksonville defense. It doesn’t
matter that Pete Carroll picked up three guys from the Canadian Football League
to round out the Seahawks defense. It doesn’t freaking matter that the Bills
couldn’t even slap together a minute of highlights for their starting
quarterback. Dogs. Just bet the dogs. This
is my new religion – at least until I’m cursing myself out for betting on the
Browns on Sunday.
The Picks:
Atlanta Falcons
at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
The one outlier
to betting the dogs in Week 1: when two playoff teams match up, the favorite
wins 63 percent of the time (7-4 ATS since 2013). Gimme the champs and Big
Dick Nick Foles.
Pittsburgh
Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+4)
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Indianapolis Colts
Buffalo Bills (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville
Jaguars at NY Giants (+3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) at New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans (+6.5) at New England Patriots
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins
just seem terrible, based on five minutes worth of internet research. Breaking
my own rule here.
KC Chiefs (+3.5) at No One In Los Angeles Cares
About The Chargers (Editor’s Note:
HEY!!!)
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Denver Broncos
Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins (Pick ‘em) at Arizona Cardinals
Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
NY Jets (+6.5) at Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders
Breaking my
rule, again, because the Raiders just threw away Khalil Mack and I’m a complete
shill for Sean “Baby Belichick” McVay. (Editor’s
Note: This may be among the best opportunities to play Week 1 based on this
article’s research, as the public may be overly fading the Raiders based on the
Mack news—their defense projected to be well below-average in either case. I’ll
take the home dogs, opening the season in the raucous black hole. Gimme Raiders
+4.5.)
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This is an exclusive guest post written
by Roto Pope podcast co-host, Sean Burch. Follow him on Twitter, @SeanB44.
